Tag Archives: Noumea

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Brushes New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brushed New Caledonia on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 22.2°S and longitude 167.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) east-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia on Tuesday night. Lucas weakened before it reached New Caledonia. An upper level trough east of Australia produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear and they blew the tops off of thunderstorms around the center of Lucas. Drier air wrapped around the northern side of the tropical cyclone, which caused some of the outer rainbands to weaken as well. Tropical Cyclone Lucas was the equivalent of a tropical storm when it moved near southern New Caledonia. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Lucas.

Since many of the stronger thunderstorms in the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Lucas have weakened, the system will be steered by winds lower in the atmosphere. A high pressure system north of New Zealand will steer Lucas slowly toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Lucas will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern New Caledonia for another 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Lucas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 163.1°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas intensified north of New Caledonia on Monday. A microwave satellite image showed a small eye forming at the center of Lucas. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the developing eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Lucas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lucas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear could be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Lucas even though it will move over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours. That high pressure system will steer Lucas toward the southeast during the next day or so. A second high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Lucas more toward the south later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Lucas could approach New Caledonia within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel Forms Over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gretel formed over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel was located at latitude 18.2°S and longitude 158.7°E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) west-northwest of Poum, New Caledonia.  Gretel was moving toward the east-southeast at 22 m.p.h. (36 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around an area of low pressure over the Coral Sea became better organized on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gretel.  The circulation around Gretel was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing in all parts of the circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Gretel began to generate upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or so.  Gretel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge.  The winds are weaker in the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Gretel will intensify during the next 24 to 36 hours and it could strengthen into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gretel will move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer Gretel toward the east-southeast.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could pass just west of New Caledonia during the next 18 to 30 hours.  Gretel will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to New Caledonia on Sunday.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Gretel could approach Norfolk Island in about 36 hours.