Tropical Cyclone Lucas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Coral Sea on Monday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas was located at latitude 16.1°S and longitude 163.1°E which put it about 495 miles (800 km) north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Lucas was moving toward the southeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas intensified north of New Caledonia on Monday. A microwave satellite image showed a small eye forming at the center of Lucas. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the developing eye. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Lucas. The strongest bands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Lucas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification. Lucas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough east of Australia will produce northwesterly winds which blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification. The vertical wind shear could be strong enough to prevent intensification of Tropical Cyclone Lucas even though it will move over warm water.

Tropical Cyclone Lucas will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system during the next 24 hours. That high pressure system will steer Lucas toward the southeast during the next day or so. A second high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Lucas more toward the south later on Tuesday. On its anticipated track Lucas could approach New Caledonia within 36 hours.