Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Western North Pacific Ocean south-southeast of Guam on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.8°N and longitude 146.7°E which put it about 255 miles (410 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

Typhoon Warnings were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday. A small circular eye was present at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass continue to cause the surface pressure to decrease quickly.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.4. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form. If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Mawar to weaken temporarily.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in than 24 hours. Mawar is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will be capable of causing regional severe damage when it reaches Guam. Typhoon Mawar will start to move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.

Typhoon Mawar prompted the issuance of a Typhoon Warning for Guam on Monday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mawar was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 146.8°E which put it about 290 miles (465 km) south-southeast of Guam. Mawar was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Warning were in effect for Guam and Rota. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Typhoon Watches were also in effect for Tinian and Saipan.

Typhoon Mawar continued to intensify on Monday morning. A small circular eye formed at the center of Mawar’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Mawar. Storms near the core of Mawar’s circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm in all directions. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Mawar was small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Mawar’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (190 km) from the center of Typhoon Mawar. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mawar was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0. Mawar was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Mawar will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Mawar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Mawar will intensify during the next 36 hours. Mawar could intensify more rapidly at times. Typhoon Mawar is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane within 36 hours.

Typhoon Mawar will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Mawar toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mawar will approach Guam in 36 hours. Mawar could be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches the Marianas. Typhoon Mawar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Mawar will move south of a subtropical high pressure system when it approaches the Marianas. The subtropical high will steer Mawar more toward the west-northwest later this week.