Former Tropical Storm Fabio strengthened into a hurricane Monday morning as it moved south of Baja California. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Fabio was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 110.9°W which put it about 700 miles (1125 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.
The inner core of Hurricane Fabio exhibited signs of greater organization on Monday morning. Microwave satellite imagery provided evidence of a rainband wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation. There were intermittent signs that an eye could be forming at the center of circulation. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands south and east of the center of Hurricane Fabio. The bands north and west of the center were weaker, which may indicate that there was some drier air in those parts of the circulation. Thunderstorms near the core of Fabio were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane in all directions.
Hurricane Fabio will be moving through an environment that is very favorable for intensification. Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C. It will move through an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. It will continue to strengthen and it could intensify rapidly once an eye forms and persists. Fabio is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.
Hurricane Fabio is moving south of a subtropical ridge which is steering the hurricane toward the west-northwest. The west-northwesterly motion is forecast to continue during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Fabio will move away from Baja California.
Tropical Storm Fabio developed west of Mexico on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Fabio was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 107.4°W which put it about 770 miles (1240 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Fabio was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Storm Fabio was still organizing. There was a broad low level center of circulation, but it did not have a well developed inner core. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the broad low level center. The storms in the rainbands were generating some upper level divergence which was starting to pump mass away from the tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Fabio will move through an environment that is very favorable for intensification. Fabio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28.5°C. An upper level ridge northeast of Tropical Storm Fabio will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. However, the wind speed will be similar at all levels and there will not be much vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Fabio will continue to intensify in the favorable environment. Once a primary rainband wraps around the center of circulation, an inner core will develop. Tropical Storm Fabio could intensify rapidly when an eye starts to form. Fabio could strengthen into a major hurricane in two or three days.
Tropical Storm Fabio was moving south of a subtropical ridge which was steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest. A general west-northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Fabio will pass well to the south of Baja California.
Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean Tropical Depression Emilia continued to weaken over cooler water. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Emilia was located at latitude 19.3°N and longitude 123.0°W which put it about 880 miles (1415 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Emilia was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.