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Tropical Storm Agatha Strengthens, Mexico Issues Hurricane Warning

Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday evening and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 98.7°W which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, Mexico. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado and from Salina Cruz to Boca de Pijijiapan, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened on Saturday. However, microwave satellite images suggested that the center of circulation in the middle troposphere could be a little to the northeast of the center at the surface. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded much of the center in the middle troposphere and the center at the surface could reform under the mid-tropospheric center. Thunderstorms around the center in the middle troposphere generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Some drier air over Mexico appeared to get pulled into the northwestern part of Agatha’s circulation. Bands in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Agatha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Bands of thunderstorms were in the southern and eastern parts of Agatha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Agatha.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Agatha will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday. Agatha could undergo a period of rapid intensification if the center at the surface reforms under the center in the middle troposphere and an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop fully.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the north during the next 12 hours. Agatha will move toward the northeast on Sunday night and Monday when it moves around the northwestern part of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Agatha will move approach the coast of Mexico near Puerto Escondido and Puerto Angel on Monday afternoon. Tropical Storm Agatha is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches Mexico. There is a chance Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression One-E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Agatha, Mexico Issues Hurricane Watch

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Agatha over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Saturday morning and the government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 98.4°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Agatha was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz.

Tropical Storm Agatha strengthened on Saturday morning. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Agatha’s circulation. Microwave satellite images provided indications that a small eye was forming at the center of circulation. A partial ring of thunderstorms wrapped around the northern side of the center. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Agatha. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Agatha.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Agatha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.. Tropical Storm Agatha will continue to intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday. Agatha could undergo a period of rapid intensification once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall are fully formed.

Tropical Storm Agatha will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Agatha toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Agatha will move closer to Mexico. Agatha could approach the coast of Mexico on Monday. Tropical Storm Agatha is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches Mexico. There is a chance Agatha could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 97.9°W which put it about 220 miles (355 km) south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Tropical Depression One-E was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Friday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and western sides of the center of Tropical Depression One-E. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an area favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the western part of the axis of an upper level ridge over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.. Tropical Depression One-E will intensify to a tropical storm on Saturday and it could strengthen to a hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the western part of a high pressure system over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression One-E will move closer to Mexico. The depression could approach the coast of Mexico on Monday. It could be a hurricane when it approaches Mexico. The government of Mexico is likely to issue watches and/or warnings for a portion of the coast on Saturday.

Andres Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Andres weakened to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Andres was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 109.8°W which put it about 475 miles (765 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Strong vertical wind shear caused former Tropical Storm Andres to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday afternoon. An upper level trough northwest of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Andres. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blowing the tops off of thunderstorms that tried to form. A few thunderstorms developed east of the center of Andres earlier on Monday, but the strong upper level winds blew the tops off of those storms. The circulation around Tropical Depression Andres consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Monday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Andres will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next several days. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 26°C. However, the upper level trough northwest of Baja California will continue to produce strong upper level winds over Tropical Depression Andres. The strong upper level winds will blow the tops off any thunderstorms that begin to form and the circulation around Andres will gradually weaken.

Since the circulation around Tropical Depression Andres exists primarily in the lower levels, it will be steered by the wind closer to the surface. A large surface high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will steer Andres toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Andres will dissipate southwest of Baja California later this week.

TD 01E Strengthens to Tropical Storm Andres

Former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to Tropical Storm Andres southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Andres was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 107.9°W which put it about 620 miles (1000 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Andres was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Andres. The circulation around Andres was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Andres. The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Andres. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Andres will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Andres will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 28°C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Andres could strengthen during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach Andres from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical storm. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Andres to weaken early next week.

Tropical Storm Andres will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer Andres toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Storm Andres will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer Andres toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Andres will remain south of Baja California.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed southwest of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 13.8°N and longitude 107.7°W which put it about 645 miles (1035 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system formerly called Invest 90E on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E. The circulation around the depression was exhibiting more organization. Storms near the center of the depression began to generate more upper level divergence which pumped mass away from it. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for develop of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. The tropical depression will move under the center of an upper level ridge southwest of Mexico. The winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression One-E is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean will approach the depression from the west on Monday. The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. More wind shear will cause the depression to weaken early next week.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico. The high will steer the tropical depression toward the northwest on Sunday. Tropical Depression One-E will move southeast of a large high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the early part of next week. That high pressure system will steer the tropical depression toward the west. On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will remain south of Baja California.

One-E Becomes Earliest East Pacific Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression One-E became Saturday the earliest tropical depression for form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the satellite era which began in 1966.  The previous date of the earliest formation over that region was May 9, 2017 when a depression formed that would ultimately strengthen into Tropical Storm Adrian.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 116.1°E which put it about 730 miles (1175 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Invest 90E southwest of Baja California on Saturday morning and National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E.  Tropical Depression One-E is the first tropical depression to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the month of April in the satellite era .  The distribution of thunderstorms around the depression was asymmetrical.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  The southern half of the circulation was over warmer Sea Surface Temperatures, which may have contributed to the development of thunderstorms in that part of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26.5°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and they will inhibit intensification.  Conditions could be favorable enough to allow Tropical Depression One-E to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  The depression will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures later on Sunday, which will cause it to weaken.

Tropical Depression One-E will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next 24 hours.  The high will steer the depression toward the northwest on Saturday.  A second high pressure system over the North Pacific Ocean will block the northward movement of the depression later on Sunday.  The second high will steer the depression more toward the west later in the weekend.

Alvin Strengthens Into a Hurricane Southwest of Baja California

Former Tropical Storm Alvin strengthened into a hurricane southwest of Baja California on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Alvin was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 115.4°W which put it about 520 miles (840 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

The circulation around Hurricane Alvin exhibited much greater organization on Wednesday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (15 km) appeared at the center of circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The circulation around Hurricane Alvin was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out only 10 miles (15 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 50 miles (80 km) from the center.

Hurricane Alvin may be near its maximum intensity.  Alvin was moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature was near 27°C.  However, it will move over cooler water on Friday.  The small size of the circulation around Hurricane Alvin could allow it to weaken quickly once it moves over the cooler water.

Hurricane Alvin will move near the western end of a subtropical ridge over Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will steer Alvin toward the west-northwest during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Alvin is forecast to weaken when it moves over colder water between Baja California and Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Alvin Develops South of Baja California

Tropical Storm Alvin developed south of Baja California on Wednesday morning, when former Tropical Depression One-E strengthened to a tropical storm.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alvin was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put it about 565 miles (915 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Alvin was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Alvin exhibited greater organization on Wednesday morning.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern side of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were organizing in the eastern half of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center on the eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Alvin will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Alvin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Tropical Storm Alvin will move south of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Alvin will intensify during the next day or two and it could strengthen into a hurricane.

The upper level ridge will steer Tropical Storm Alvin toward the west during the next several days.  Alvin could move a little to the south of due west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Alvin will move steadily farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Depression One-E Forms West of Mexico

Tropical Depression One-E formed west of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of a low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression One-E.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

The circulation around Tropical Depression One-E exhibited greater organization on Tuesday afternoon.  Several short bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing near the center of circulation.  One band was north of the center, another was west of the center and a third band was south of the center of circulation.  Bands east of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression One-E will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear which will slow the rate of intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression One-E is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36 hours.

A subtropical ridge north of Tropical Depression One-E will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression One-E will move away from Mexico.  It is forecast to pass south of Baja California.