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Tropical Cyclone 04B Brings Rain to Southern India

Tropical Cyclone 04B brought rain to parts of southern India on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 80.6°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Chennai, India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (14 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the western Bay of Bengal strengthened on Thursday morning and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 04B. The India Meteorological Department classified the system as a depression. The center of Tropical Cyclone 04B was located near Chennai, India. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands west of the center of circulation and along the northern periphery of the tropical cyclone. Bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km/h) from the center of the tropical cyclone.

The center of Tropical Cyclone 04B will make landfall on the southern coast of India near Chennai in a few hours. The tropical cyclone will bring gusty winds to the northern coast of Tamil Nadu and the southern coast of Andhra Pradesh. Tropical Cyclone 04B will drop locally heavy rain over parts or northern Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh and southern Karnataka as it moves inland. The tropical cyclone will weaken gradually after it moves inland over southern India.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab Redevelops over the Arabian Sea

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea on Thursday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 22.8°N and longitude 65.1°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan. Gulab was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab redeveloped over the Arabian Sea south of Pakistan on Thursday. Gulab originally formed over the northern Bay of Bengal a few days ago. Gulab made landfall on the coast of India near Tekkali and then it moved westward across India. Even though Tropical Cyclone Gulab weakened after it made landfall, the circulation remained relatively intact because of a favorable upper level environment. There was not a lot of vertical wind shear. In fact, upper level divergence continued to pump away mass and allow the surface low pressure system to persist. The circulation began to intensify as Gulab approached the Arabian Sea and it strengthened once the low level center was back over water.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Gulab exhibited more organization on Thursday. More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Gulab. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The northern half of Gulab appeared to be pulling drier air from Asia into its circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) on the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) on the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Southwest Asia and the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Dry air from Asia could continue to limit the development of thunderstorms in the northern half of Gulab. Tropical Cyclone Gulab will intensify during the next 36 hours and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over Southwest Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Oman near Muscat in 60 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab forms over Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Gulab formed over the northern Bay of Bengal on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Gulab was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 245 miles (395 km) east of Tekkali, India. Gulab was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the northern Bay of Bengal strengthened on Saturday and the India Meteorological Department designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Gulab. The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Gulab was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Gulab’s circulation. Bands in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over southern Asia was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Gulab. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (96 km) from the center of Gulab.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Gulab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. However, the upper level ridge over southern Asia will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Gulab could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours if the wind shear does not increase. If the upper level winds get stronger, then the wind shear will cause Gulab to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Gulab will move south of a high pressure system over southern Asia. The high will steer Gulab toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Gulab could approach the coast of Andhra Pradesh near Tekkali in 24 hours. Gulab will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northeastern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Hits Northeast India

Tropical Cyclone Yaas hit northeastern India early on Wednesday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 86.8°E which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas made landfall on the coast of northeastern India early on Wednesday. The center of Yaas crossed the coastline near Balasore, India. Tropical Cyclone Yaas was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time when it made landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) on the eastern side of Yaas over the northern Bay of Bengal. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) on the western side of the circulation which was over northern Odisha.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move slowly toward the northwest over northeastern India during the next day or so. Yaas will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will produce gusty winds over northern Odisha during the next 24 hours. The wind could cause sporadic power outages. Yaas will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of northeastern India and flash floods could occur in some locations. The heaviest rain will fall in the western side of the circulation. Tropical Cyclone Yaas may have caused a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of northern Bay of Bengal. The water level should drop slowly as Yaas moves farther inland and weakens.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Yaas strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the northern Bay of Bengal on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 89.1°E which put it about 195 miles (310 km) south of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon south of Kolkata on Tuesday. A broken ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of Yaas and the strongest winds were occurring in the storms in the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cylone Yaas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Yaas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours . Yaas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge centered over Bangladesh. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Yaas could strengthen gradually during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Yaas will make landfall on the coastline of Odisha southwest of Kolkata in 15 hours. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. Yaas is likely to bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of northeastern India. The coast along the northern Bay of Bengal is very vulnerable to a storm surge. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will cause a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 feet (3 meters) on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas Intensifies South of Kolkata

Tropical Cyclone Yaas intensified over the northern Bay of Bengal on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Yaas was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 88.0°E which put it about 305 miles (495 km) south of Kolkata, India. Yaas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas strengthened to almost the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon south of Kokata on Monday night. The distribution of thunderstorms around Yaas remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Yaas. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Yaas. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Yaas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Yaas will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Yaas will make landfall on the coastline of Odisha southwest of Kolkata in 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. Yaas is likely to bring damaging winds and locally heavy rain to the coastal regions of Odisha and West Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Yaas will cause a dangerous storm surge of up to 9 feet (3 meters) on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical Cyclone Forms over Bay of Bengal

A tropical cyclone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of a tropical cyclone was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 89.8°E which put it about 465 miles (750 km) south-southeast of Kolkata, India. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthened on Sunday night and the system was designated as Tropical Cyclone 02B by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was still organizing. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the outer portion of the circulation around the tropical cyclone. The inner end of a rainband began to wrap around the western side of the center of circulation. The circulation around the tropical cyclone was large. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

The tropical cyclone will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31°C. The tropical cyclone will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. The tropical cyclone will intensify during the next 24 hours. It could intensify more rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall form. The tropical cyclone could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

The tropical cyclone will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high will steer the tropical cyclone toward the north-northwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track the tropical cyclone could approach the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal in 48 hours. It will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast. The tropical cyclone is likely to bring damaging winds, and locally heavy rain. It will also likely cause a dangerous storm surge on parts of the coast around the northern Bay of Bengal.

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Hits Gujarat

Major Tropical Cyclone Tauktae hit the Indian state of Gujarat on Monday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 71.4°E which put it about 25 miles (405 km) west of Mahuva, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae made landfall on coast of Gujarat near Jafrabad, India on Monday. The core of Tauktae moved inland between Diu and Mahuva. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was the equivalent of a major hurricane, when it made landfall. A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) was evident on satellite imagery. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.9. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move inland toward the north-northeast over Gujarat during the next 24 hours. Tauktae will produce winds capable of causing major damage in the southern part of Gujarat. Strong southerly winds will push water into the Gulf of Khambhat. A storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) could occur at some places along the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will also drop heavy rain over parts of Gujarat and flash floods could occur. Tauktae will start to move more toward the east later on Tuesday when it reaches the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Nears Gujarat

Severe Tropical Cyclone Tauktae neared the Indian state of Gujarat on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 18.9°N and longitude 71.5°E which put it about 90 miles (145 km) west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was passing just to the west of Mumbai, India on Sunday night. The core of Tauktae contracted on Sunday as the tropical cyclone continued to intensify. The diameter of the circular eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae shrank to 14 miles (22 km). The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (75 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 44.3. Tauktae was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for a strong tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle begins. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then an eyewall replacement cycle could cause Tauktae to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 12 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing severe damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the Arabian Sea south of Mumbai, India on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 72.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) south-southwest of Mumbai, India. Tauktae was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae continued to intensify on Sunday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tauktae. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Tauktae increase in size on Sunday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tauktae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Tauktae was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 38.2. Tauktae was capable of causing regional major damage.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Tauktae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move the northwestern portion of an upper level ridge over India and the eastern Arabian Sea. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae is likely to continue to intensify during the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over India. The high will steer the Tauktae toward the north-northwest during the next 18 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will pass west of Mumbai, India. Rainbands on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone could produce gusty winds, drop locally heavy rain and bring high waves to the west coast of India in Maharastra and Gujarat. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae could approach the coast of Gujarat near Diu in 24 hours. Tauktae is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when the center nears the coast. Tropical Cyclone Tauktae will be capable of producing major damage in Gujarat. Tauktae could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the coast of Gujarat. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods.