Tropical Storm Danny has moved steadily westward during the past 24 hours.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located at latitude 11.2°N and longitude 41.1°W which put it about 1385 miles (2235 km) east of the Lesser Antilles and about 2740 miles (4410 km) east-southeast of Miami, Florida.  Danny was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The organization of the circulation of Danny has varied during the past day.  It has a visible tight core at the center, but earlier today there was no convection around the core.  Recent satellite images show new thunderstorms developing near the core.  The environment around Danny is complex and it contains both positive and negative factors.  Danny is currently over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 28°C.  However, there is slightly cooler water just to the north of the tropical storm.  Satellite imagery indicates that there could also be drier air north of the circulation and some of that drier air could be pulled into Danny.  The upper level winds are light and upper level divergence is occurring.  However, a surge in the low level trade winds is about 250 miles (400 km) east of Danny.   If the surge in the trade winds reaches the core of Danny, it could push the lower part of the circulation out ahead (to the west) of the upper part of the circulation.  In that case Danny would weaken.

The complexity of the environment around Tropical Storm Danny makes the intensity forecast challenging.  If the trade wind surge does not reach the core of Danny and it stays over warm SSTs, then gradual intensification is possible.  On the other hand, if Danny moves more northward over cooler SSTs and into drier air, or if the trade wind surge creates more vertical wind shear, then Danny could weaken.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Danny is steering Danny toward the west and a generally west or west-northwest motion is forecast for the next few days.  If Danny is a little stronger, it could move a little farther north, and if it is weaker, it could stay farther south.  On its anticipated track, Danny could approach the Lesser Antilles in four or five days.  Interests in those areas should monitor Danny for future developments.