A weak trough of low pressure over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next few days.  The National Hurricane Center is stating that there is a 70% probability of the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next five days.  A broad trough of low pressure stretches from near Panama to east of Nicaragua.  There is not a well defined center of low pressure within the broader trough.  There were more thunderstorms earlier today, but many of them weakened on Monday evening.  A few more thunderstorms developed north of Panama during the past several hours.

The environment over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is favorable for intensification.  The Sea Surface Temperature of water in that part of the Caribbean Sea is around 29°C.  There is an upper level ridge over the area.  The winds are weaker in the center of the ridge and there is little vertical wind shear in that part of the atmosphere.  The ridge providing a source of upper level divergence which is allowing the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

Several numerical models are suggesting that a tropical cyclone could develop during the next few days.  The models do differ on exactly when and where the tropical cyclone could form.  The probability of development will be higher if the area of lower pressure remains over the water.  However, if the trough of low pressure drifts closer to the coast of Nicaragua, then the interaction of the circulation with land could inhibit the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Even if a tropical cyclone does not form, the trough could produce locally heavy rain over parts of Panama, Nicaragua and Honduras.