A small surface low pressure system formed just north of the Bahamas on Thursday and the National Hurricane Center has designated this system Invest 92L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the low was centered at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 70 miles east-northeast of Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.  The low was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

An east-west upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and an upper low east of the Carolinas were combining to produce strong northerly winds over the surface low.  Those winds were creating considerable wind shear and were blowing much of the thunderstorm activity to the south of the low.   The shear is likely to continue for the next day or two and it is likely to inhibit significant intensification of the low.  The northerly winds were diverging on the south side of the low and the upper level divergence did cause the surface pressure to decrease by several millibars on Thursday.

The low is likely to move across south Florida during the weekend and it could enhance the rainfall in that area.  If the surface low remains intact and moves out over the Gulf of Mexico, it could move into an area where the wind shear is less.  Some models are suggesting that the low could become a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico, but that is contingent on its circulation retaining its integrity and the shear decreasing.  If a tropical cyclone does form, it could move toward the western or northwestern Gulf Coast during the early part of next week.

This low bears watching because of its proximity to the U.S., but it’s future is highly uncertain.  The wind shear could cause the system to dissipate as it crosses over Florida.  On the other hand, the low could move just far enough south to get away from the strongest upper level winds and then the low could emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days.  There is time to watch the evolution of this system.