Tropical Storm Noul intensified on Monday as it moved closer to Yap.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 138.8°E which put it about 55 miles east of Yap and about 290 miles east-northeast of Palau.  Noul was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. and there were gusts 80 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A primary rainband appears to be wrapping around the small center of circulation in Tropical Storm Noul.  It continues to move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature in near 29°C.  A subtropical ridge east of Noul is generating light easterly winds over the top the circulation.  The flow is causing modest vertical wind shear and may be the reason why many of the thunderstorms are forming to the west of the center.  If the rainband can wrap completely around the center, then an eye may form.  Noul is likely to remain in an environment that will support further intensification and it could become a typhoon within 24 hours.

Noul is near the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is moving slowly.  The slow motion is likely to continue for another day or so.  After that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and extend farther westward.  As the ridge extends westward, it is forecast to steer Noul toward the west-northwest later this week.

On the projected track Noul will move almost directly over Yap on Tuesday.  It could be near typhoon intensity at that time and bring wind and heavy rain.

The center of circulation in Tropical Depression 06W became more well defined on Sunday and the system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Noul.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 9.7°N and longitude 140.3°E which put it about 150 miles east of Yap and about 360 miles east-northeast of Palau.  Noul was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 55 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Noul is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  An upper level ridge northeast of the tropical storm is producing some southeasterly winds over the top of Noul.  However, the vertical wind shear appears to be decreasing.  More thunderstorms developed close to the center of circulation in recent hours and a primary rainband appears to be wrapping around the northern side of the storm.  These are indications of a tropical cyclone that is becoming more well organized.  The increased convection near the center is contributing to well developed upper level divergence on the western and northern portions of the circulation.  Noul will be moving through an environment favorable for intensification.  Wind speeds are likely to increase and a period of rapid intensification is possible once the circulation is more well organized.  Noul could become a typhoon in a day or two and it could become the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Noul is at the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it slowly toward the northwest.  It could continue to move slowly for another 24 hours or so.  After that time the subtropical ridge is forecast to extend farther west and begin to steer Noul on a west-northwesterly track.  The projected track would take Noul in the general direction of the northern Philippines.  The center of Noul is forecast to pass just north of Yap and it could bring wind and heavy rain when it does.

A low level circulation with a primary spiral band developed within a broad area of thunderstorms and the system was classified as Tropical Depression 06W on Saturday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday night the center of Tropical Depression 06W was located at latitude 7.5°N and longitude 141.2°E which put it about 240 miles southeast of Yap and about 430 miles east of Palau.  06W was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Depression 06W is an environment favorable for further intensification.  It is over Sea Surface Temperatures that are warmer than 28°C and it will be able to extract plenty of energy from the ocean along its path.  An upper level ridge northeast of the circulation is generating some easterly winds over the top of it, but the vertical wind shear is only likely to slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Depression 06W is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday and it could become a typhoon in several days.

A subtropical ridge is steering 06W toward the west and it is expected to continue to steer it in a generally west-northwesterly motion during the next day or so.  The movement could slow as 06W nears the western end of the subtropical ridge.  The eastern end of a second subtropical ridge located farther west could take over as the primary steering mechanism in two or three days.  In that scenario Tropical Depression 06W would continue to move toward the northern Philippines.

Tropical Depression 06W could be nearing Yap in 24 to 30 hours.  It is likely to be a tropical storm at that time and it could bring some wind and rain to Yap.