A tropical cyclone was forming over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a low pressure system was located at latitude 8.3°N and longitude 88.3°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km) southwest of Port Blair. The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system was strengthening over the southern Bay of Bengal on Tuesday morning. The India Meteorological Department classified the system as a well marked low pressure system and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Invest 91B. The circulation around the low pressure system exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms were beginning to revolve around the center of circulation. The strongest bands were in the southern and western parts of the low pressure system. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The low pressure system will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few days. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. The low pressure system will intensify during the next 48 hours. It is likely to strengthen to a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system is likely to intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

The low pressure system will move around the western end of a high pressure system that extends from the Western North Pacific Ocean to Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of circulation will pass west of the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of the circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands. The low pressure system will move toward the north-northeast later this week. It is likely to make landfall near the border between Bangladesh and Myanmar in a few days. The low pressure system is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it makes landfall.