Powerful Tropical Cyclone Mocha was nearing the coast of the Bay of Bengal near the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mocha was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 91.4°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southwest of Sittwe, Myanmar. Mocha was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 926 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mocha continued to intensify on Saturday. A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was present at the center of Mocha’s circulation. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that band of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated strong upper level divergence that pumped a large quantity of mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of a large quantity of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease to 926 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Mocha intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Mocha’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Mocha was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 43.6. Tropical Cyclone Mocha was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Ida when Ida hit southeast Louisiana in 2021. Tropical Cyclone Mocha was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Tropical Cyclone Mocha will move through an environment favorable for a powerful tropical cyclone during the next few hours. Mocha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the center of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Mocha is likely to maintain its intensity until it reaches land.

Tropical Cyclone Mocha will move around the western end of a high pressure system that extends from the Western North Pacific Ocean to Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Mocha toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Mocha is likely to make landfall between Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh and Sittwe, Myanmar in less than 12 hours. Mocha will be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it makes landfall. Tropical Cyclone Mocha will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain to Myanmar and Bangladesh. The strong wind and rain is likely to cause severe damage. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Mocha could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the coast where the wind blows the water toward the shore.