Light winds in the upper troposphere allowed the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Nilofar to pump out sufficient mass to enable it to intensify into the equivalent of a Major Hurricane.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Nilofar was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 61.8°E which put it about 315 miles southeast of Masirah Island, about 650 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan and about 740 miles west of Mumbai, India.  Nilofar was moving toward the north at 11 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 135 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts estimated to be 160 m.p.h.

The environment around Nilofar is capable of supporting an intense tropical cyclone, which is what Nilofar has become.  The upper level winds are light, which has allowed upper level divergence to spread the air in all directions.  In addition, the upper level outflow from Nilofar has interacted with surrounding weather systems to create outflow channels to the northeast and to the southwest.  The favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm Sea Surface Temperatures, which are supplying plenty of energy to Nilofar, has produced a strong tropical cyclone.  Nilofar could intensify further, although it is at the intensity where eyewall replacement cycles could begin to cause fluctuations in intensity.

Nilofar is moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system which is steering it to the north.  An upper level trough in the westerly flow north of Nilofar will eventually turn it toward the northeast.  Nilofar could threaten parts of Pakistan and India by the end of the week.  However, the southwesterly winds in the upper level trough will also generate more wind shear and Nilofar could start to weaken rapidly when it moves toward the coast of South Asia.