Tropical Cyclone Stan intensified on Friday as it moved closer to the coast of Western Australia.  At 4:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Stan was located near latitude 18.6°N and longitude 118.9°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia.  Stan was moving toward the east-southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Stan is much more well organized than it was 24 hours ago.  A primary rainband has wrapped about two thirds of the way around a distinct center of circulation.  There are many more thunderstorms in the core of the circulation and the structure is more symmetrical.  Thunderstorms in the core of Tropical Cyclone Stan are beginning to generate more upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.

The environment surrounding Tropical Cyclone Stan is now more favorable for intensification.  Stan has moved closer to the center of an upper level ridge that is located east of the tropical cyclone.  As a result, the upper level winds are not as strong and there is less vertical wind shear.  Since Tropical Cyclone Stan is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C, the reduced wind shear allowed it to intensify significantly today.  The environment will be favorable for intensification until Tropical Cyclone Stan makes landfall, and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane within 12 hours.  A period of rapid intensification may be possible.

As Tropical Cyclone Stan moved into an area where the easterly winds in the middle and upper levels were not as strong, it jogged eastward on Friday.  Stan is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge and it is expected to begin to move more toward the southeast during the next 12 to 24 hours.  The eastward jog today also moved the most likely landfall location to the east.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Stan is expected to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia in 12 to 24 hours.  The highest probability of landfall is between Broome and Port Hedland near Pardoo Station.

Tropical Cyclone Stan will likely be the equivalent of a hurricane when it makes landfall.  It will be capable of causing wind damage.  Stan will also bring locally heavy rain and a chance for flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Stan could generate a significant storm surge along the coast near where the center makes landfall.