Super Typhoon Hagupit is nearing the Philippines and the center will pass near the northern end of Samar during the next 24 hours.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hagupit was located at latitude 12.3°N and longitude 127.4ºE which put it about 240 miles east of Legaspi, Philippines and about 450 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. and there were gust estimated to 185 m.p.h.

The intensity of Hagupit has fluctuated during the past 24 hours as the speed of the upper level winds has varied and the internal dynamics of the circulation have affected the wind speed. The Sea Surface Temperatures near the Philippines are just slightly cooler and interaction with the islands will cause some disruption to the circulation.  As a result, Hagupit will most likely maintain its intensity or slowly weaken as it approaches the Philippines.  If the circulation interacts more with the islands, then the rate of weakening will be faster.

Hagupit continues to be steered to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge to its north and that steering pattern appears likely to continue.  On its current path, Hagupit will begin to affect portions of the Central Philippines on Saturday.  Hagupit will move near the northern end of Samar and then begin to have an impact on southeastern and southern Luzon.  The center of Hagupit could be near Manila in about 72 hours.  Hagupit will be weaker, but it could still be a typhoon when it approaches Manila.

Hagupit will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall as it crosses the central Philippines.  The Hurricane Intensity Index for Hagupit is 25.1 and the Hurricane Size Index is 19.9  which means that it has the potential to cause regional significant damage.  Heavy rain will create the potential for flooding and mudslides.  Some locations could also see a significant storm surge.