Although Typhoon Hagupit has weakened somewhat, it still has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain to portions of the central and northern Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 129.3°E which put it about 400 miles east of Legaspi, Philippines and about 610 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 170 m.p.h.

As the forward movement of Hagupit slowed, easterly winds in the upper troposphere generated more wind shear and the typhoon has slowly weakened.  This weakening trend is likely to continue even though Hagupit will be moving over warm Sea Surface Temperatures.  Hagupit is still expected to be a significant typhoon when it begins to near the Philippines in about 36 hours.

Hagupit is being steering to the west-northwest by a subtropical ridge to its north.  A trough in the upper level westerly flow near Japan is expected to temporarily weaken the ridge and the forward motion of Hagupit could slow further.  However, after the upper level trough moves northeast of the ridge, the ridge is expected to strengthen again and steer Hagupit into the Philippines.  Hagupit could be very near the island of Samar in about 36 hours.  It is expected to cross the most southeastern portion of Luzon in about 54 hours and the center could be near Manila in  about 96 hours.

Although Hagupit is likely to weaken further before it reaches the Philippines it could bring strong winds and heavy rain.  The center is expected to pass just south of the Mayon Volcano and the potential for flooding and mudslides exists.  Moving over the islands of the Philippines will also weaken Hagupit, but it could still be a typhoon when it approaches Manila.