Typhoon Hagupit continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday and it is now the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Super Typhoon Hagupit was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 133.9°E which put it about 175 miles north of Palau, about 600 miles east of Tacloban, Philippines and about 930 miles east-southeast of Manila.  Hagupit was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. and there were estimated gusts to 215 m.p.h.

Hagupit is in a very favorable environment.  It is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and the upper level winds are light.  Upper level outflow is well developed and it is pumping out mass in all directions.  The environment is capable of supporting a little further intensification.  However, when tropical cyclones become as intense as Hagupit, they often undergo eyewall replacement cycles, which can produce fluctuations in intensity.  Hagupit is expected to remain an intense typhoon during the next two to three days.

A subtropical ridge north of Hagupit is steering the typhoon toward the west-northwest.  The ridge is expected to steer Hagupit in the same general direction during the next 48 hours.  After that time an upper level trough in the westerly flow near Japan is expected to weaken the subtropical ridge and the forward motion of Hagupit could slow down.  There is much more uncertainty about the track forecast beyond three days.  One set of forecast models is predicting that Hagupit will turn toward the north before it reaches the Philippines.  However, another set of forecast models keeps Hagupit moving westward and reaching the Philippines during the weekend.  Given the intensity of Hagupit, it could be a destructive typhoon if it does move through the Philippines.