Tropical Storm Hagupit maintained its intensity on Tuesday as it moved farther away from the Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 116.6°E which put it about 320 miles west-southwest of Manila, Philippines and about 475 miles east-northeast of Cam Ranh, Vietnam.  Hagupit was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. and there gusts to 65 m.p.h.

Thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation and upper level outflow is evident on satellite images.  However, Hagupit is likely to move into a more unfavorable environment as it moves westward.  Northeasterly winds over the lower levels of the South China Sea contain cooler and drier air.  Some of the cooler, drier air may be getting pulled around the western and southern portions of Hagupit’s circulation.  If the drier air reaches the center of circulation, then deep convection will diminish and the wind speeds will decrease.  Hagupit is also likely to move into an area of more vertical wind shear as it moves westward, which could weaken the storm even faster.

Hagupit is currently being steered westward by a subtropical ridge located north of it.  If Hagupit weakens and the convection becomes shallower, if could be steered toward the southwest or west-southwest by the northeasterly winds in the lower levels.  The center of Hagupit could near the coast of Vietnam in about 36 hours.