Tropical Storm Karl continued to move steadily toward Bermuda on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 65.1°W which put it about 165 miles (270 km) south of Bermuda.  Karl was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Bermuda.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for Bemruda.

Tropical Storm Karl strengthened on Friday, but its structure remained asymmetrical.  Almost all of the thunderstorms are in a primary rainband that wraps around the northern and western sides of the center of circulation.  There are few if any thunderstorms south and east of the center.  It appears as it vertical wind shear is tilting the circulation toward the northwest.  The upper level center appears to be located 20 to 30 miles (30 to 50 km) northwest of the low level center.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband are producing upper level divergence which is pumping out mass to the east of Tropical Storm Karl.  The upper level divergence pumped out enough mass on Friday to allow the surface pressure to decrease by about 10 mb.  However, the vertical wind shear and lack of thunderstorms to the east of the center limited the increase in wind speed at the surface.

Tropical Storm Karl is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  So, there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support a stronger storm.  However, an upper level trough to the west of Karl is creating significant vertical wind shear, which is likely to limit intensification in the short term.  When Tropical Storm Karl, turns east and moves farther from the upper level trough, the shear could decrease and Karl could strengthen.  In addition Karl will begin a transition to an extratropical cyclone and that transition often produces and increase in the wind speed.  So, Tropical Storm Karl does have a chance to become a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Karl is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the north.  It is likely to keep moving in that direction for another six to twelve hours.  When Tropical Storm Karl nears Bermuda it will encounter stronger westerly winds which will turn it eastward.  Karl is likely to move quickly toward the east-northeast on Saturday and Sunday.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Karl will pass near Bermuda on Saturday morning.  It will bring a period of gusty winds and heavy rain.