The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Ernie rapidly intensified into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon late on Thursday.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Ernie was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 110.5°E which put it about 540 miles (870 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Ernie was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (12 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (140 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

An area of thunderstorms just west of the center of circulation quickly wrapped around the entire center.  A clear eye formed at the center of circulation.  Additional bands of storms formed and were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Thunderstorms around the eye were generating strong upper level divergence which pumped out mass and allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly.  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Ernie is small and winds to tropical storm force extend out only about 90 miles (150 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ernie will remain in a very favorable environment for another 12 to 24 hours.  Ernie will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge southeast of Ernie is producing northerly winds near the tropical cyclone, but those winds are not creating significant wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ernie could strengthen further during the next day or so.  In a day or two Ernie will move into an environment of lower SSTs and more vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Ernie will weaken at that time.

A subtropical ridge southeast of Ernie is steering the tropical cyclone slowly toward the south-southwest.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen and extend westward.  When the ridge extends toward the west it will also steer Tropical Cyclone Ernie more toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Ernie poses no current threat to land.