Tropical Cyclone Mora Intensifies As It Nears Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Mora intensified on Sunday as it moved closer to Bangladesh.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mora was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 90.9°E which put it about 370 miles (595 km/h) south of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The structure of Tropical Cyclone Mora exhibited more organization on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped about two thirds of the way around northern and western sides of the circulation.  A tighter center of circulation was evident at the core of Tropical Cyclone Mora.  There were few thunderstorms east of the center of circulation.  The thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating more upper level divergence which was pumping out mass to the west and north of the tropical cyclone.  The divergence was causing the surface pressure to decrease and was contributing the increase in wind speed.

Tropical Cyclone Mora will move through an environment that will be favorable for additional strengthening during the next 24 hours.  Mora will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Mora is generating easterly winds that are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  The easterly winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear and they are probably responsible for the location of the primary rainband north and west of the center of circulation.  The vertical shear will slow the rate of intensification, but it will not prevent Tropical Cyclone Mora from intensifying further.  Mora could intensify into the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon before it makes landfall.

Mora was being steered toward the north by a subtropical ridge located to the east of the tropical cyclone.  A general northward motion is expected to continue for another 24 to 36 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Mora will approach the coast of Bangladesh in 18 to 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mora could make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Mora will bring gusty winds to Bangladesh and northwestern Myanmar.  It will produce locally heavy rain and create a risk for fresh water flooding.  Counterclockwise rotation will push water toward the coast and there could be a storm surge near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  The surge could increase the water level at the coast by 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters).