An area of low pressure associated with the northern edge of a tropical wave has moved out over the southern Bay of Campeche.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft is flying through the the system and the plane has found southwesterly winds to 35 m.p.h. on the south side of the disturbance.  The strongest winds are currently on the southern side of the circulation.  If the plane is able to identify a well defined center of circulation at the surface, then the system could be classified as a tropical depression or tropical storm at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

The low pressure system is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h.  Many models are predicting that the motion will continue and the system will make landfall in Mexico in the 36-48 hours.  Some intensification is predicted before the system makes landfall.  However, confidence in the model forecasts will increase once a center of circulation is identified and is used to initialize the models.