Hurricane Odile is bringing strong winds and heavy rain to portions of Baja California as it moves up the peninsula.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Odile was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 111.3°W which put it about 90 miles south of Loreto, Mexico.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.  When the center of Odile moved over the southern tip of Baja California during the night, it tied Hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Baja California Sur in the satellite era.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Abreojos southward to the southern tip of Baja California and then northward to Santa Rosalia.  A Hurriane Watch is in effect from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Santa Rosalia northward to Bahia de Los Angeles, from Punta Eugenia northward to San Jose de Las Palomas, and from Altata to Bahia Kino.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from San Jose de Las Palomas northward to Cabo San Quintin, from Bahia de Los Angeles to San Felipe and from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad.

Odile is expected to continue moving over Baja California in the short term.  Interaction with the mountains in Baja California sometimes causes the upper parts of the circulations around tropical cyclones to be decoupled from the lower level rotation.  This makes track forecasts challenging because the upper and lower portions of the storms can go in different directions.  Odile or at least the upper and middle portions of the circulation could eventually turn more toward the north or north-northeast and some portion of Odile could spend a period of time over the Gulf of California.  It is possible that the low level circulation gets left behind and meanders along the west coast of Baja, California.

The mountains in Baja California should continue to weaken the circulation as long as the center remains over land.  If the circulation maintains a coherent vertical structure and moves over the Gulf of California, some re-intensification is possible.  The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of California are very warm.  Increased wind shear and land interaction will ultimately weaken Odile as it moves farther north.

The more northward track of Odile increases the potential for it to pull moist air into portions of the southwestern U.S. and some areas could see significant rainfall later this week.