Andres Intensifies Into a Hurricane

The core of the circulation of Andres became more circular and symmetrical on Friday and an eye has been visible intermittently during the day.  The National Hurricane Center classified Andres as a hurricane in its 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory on Friday.  At that time the center of Hurricane Andres was located at latitude 12.8°N and longitude 114.8°W which put it about 770 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.  Andres was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h.  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

As the circulation consolidated in the center of Andres strong thunderstorms pushed higher into the atmosphere around the eye.  Those thunderstorms pumped mass away from the center and caused the pressure at the surface to decrease.  Andres is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is between 28°C and 29°C which means there is enough energy in the upper ocean to support further intensification.  It also remains in an area where the vertical wind shear is low.  So, further intensification is likely during the next day or two.  As Andres moves farther north, it will gradually move over cooler SSTs and when it gets near latitude 20°N it will begin to be affected by upper level southwesterly winds.  Cooler SSTs and more wind shear will likely cause Andres to weaken during the early part of next week.

Andres is near a weakness in the mid-level ridge that has been steering the hurricane.  The weakness in the ridge caused Andres to turn toward the northwest and its forward speed to decrease.  After an upper level trough moves east of the ridge in a day or two, the ridge will strengthen and extend westward.  That will cause Andres to move more toward the west again.  On its anticipated track Andres poses no threat to Mexico.