Tag Archives: 03E

Formation of Tropical Depression 03E Prompts Mexico to Issue Warning for Coast

Tropical Depression 03E formed out of the cluster of thunderstorms formerly known as Invest 92E and the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the south coast.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression 03E was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 105 miles (170 km) southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico.  The depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (7 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Boca De Pijijiapan to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.

A distinct center of circulation developed within an area of thunderstorms that had been lingering over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  More thunderstorms formed closer to the center of circulation and the National  Hurricane Center determined that there was sufficient organization to designate the system as Tropical Depression 03E.  The stronger thunderstorms were occurring in a partial band close to the center of circulation.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were forming in bands in other parts of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center have not yet begun to generate significant upper level divergence.

Tropical Depression 03E will be moving through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It is moving under the western end of an upper level ridge.  The ridge is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are generating moderate vertical wind shear which is restricting upper level divergence to the east of the circulation.  The shear is inhibiting intensification.  Tropical Depression 03E will probably be able to extract enough energy to intensify into a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 03E is moving around the western end of a subtropical ridge which is steering it toward the northwest.  A generally northwesterly motion is forecast for the next 24 to 48 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression 03E could approach the southern coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours.  It could be a tropical storm by that time.  Tropical Depression 03E is likely to bring gusty winds, locally heavy rain and the potential for flash floods to parts of southern Mexico.

Blas Strengthens to Cat. 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Blas strengthened rapidly Tuesday to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 121.7°W which put it about 970 miles (1560 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Blas was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 170 m.p.h. (275 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Blas was 28.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.4.

The circulation of Hurricane Blas is fairly symmetrical and well organized, although many of the stronger thunderstorms are occurring in the southeastern quadrant.  Blas has a clear eye which is surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms.  Those storms generated upper level divergence which pumped out a lot of mass in all directions and allowed the pressure to decrease rapidly on Tuesday.

Hurricane Blas is in an environment that is favorable for strong hurricanes.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  The winds in the upper levels are light and there is not much vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Blas could get stronger on Wednesday.  However, eyewall replacement cycles sometimes occur in strong hurricanes.  When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, it can bring an end to a period of intensification.

A ridge of high pressure located north of Blas is steering the hurricane toward the west and that motion is expected to continue for several more days.  Hurricane Blas continues to move farther away from Mexico.

Blas Intensifies Into a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Blas intensified into the first Eastern North Pacific hurricane of 2016 on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Blas was located at latitude 13.7°N and longitude 115.7°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts  to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Blas was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.1.  The Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 16.5.

The large circulation of Hurricane Blas is still organizing.  A primary rainband wrapped around the center of circulation and an eye may be forming in the center of Blas.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are spiraling around the core of Hurricane Blas.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass.  Despite the improved organization the wind field around Hurricane Blas is asymmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force are occurring primarily in the eastern half of the circulation.  The strongest winds extend out about 25 miles (40 km) east of the center of Hurricane Blas.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) east of the center, but only about 80 miles (130 km) west of the center.

Hurricane Blas is in an environment that is favorable for further intensification.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of Blas is generating some northeasterly winds which are blowing over the top of the circulation.  The vertical wind shear is moderate.  It is slowing the rate of intensification, but the shear is unlikely to prevent Hurricane Blas from intensifying during the next several days.  Blas does have a chance to become a major hurricane later this week.

A ridge of high pressure is steering Hurricane Blas toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expect to continue for several more days.  Hurricane Blas is moving farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Blas Forms West of Mexico

After having no tropical storms during the first month and a half of the Eastern North Pacific hurricane season, Blas became the second tropical storm to form in the past two days.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 112.2°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Blas was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Storm Blas organized quickly on Sunday.  A primary rainband wrapped around the western and southern portions of the center of circulation.  Additional rainbands spiraled around the core of the storm.  The intensity of the thunderstorms weakened for a few hours, but storms east of the center of the circulation are intensifying again.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 70 miles (115 km) from the center of circulation.

An upper level ridge northeast of Blas is causing some northeasterly winds to blow over the top of the tropical storm.  The winds are responsible for vertical wind shear and they are inhibiting upper level divergence to the east of the circulation.  Tropical Storm Blas is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  In spite of the vertical wind shear the environment is favorable for intensification and Blas could become a hurricane on Monday.

A ridge of high pressure north of Blas is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  Tropical Storm Blas is moving away from Mexico.