Tropical Storm Newton formed Sunday within a large area of thunderstorms west of Mexico. Based on the forecast track and intensity the government of Mexico issued watches and warnings for parts of the west coast of Mexico and Baja California. A Hurricane Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from La Paz to Santa Fe including Cabo San Lucas. A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. Hurricane Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from La Paz to San Evaristo and from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro. Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, from Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from Mazatlan to Huatabampito.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Newton was located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 105.7°W which put it about 490 miles (790 km) southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Newton was moving toward the north-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Storm Newton is still organizing. There is a broad cyclonic rotation southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Clusters of thunderstorms may be spinning up smaller cyclonic circulations within the larger circulation. Bands of thunderstorms are developing in the southern and eastern of the portions of the larger cyclonic circulation. There is upper level divergence pumping mass out to the west of the center, but there is no apparent tight core at the center of the circulation.
Tropical Storm Newton is in an environment that is favorable for intensification. It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C. An upper level ridge over Mexico is producing northeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Newton, The upper level winds are restricting the upper level divergence to the east of Newton, but the vertical wind shear should not be strong enough to prevent intensification. It is possible that some drier air from Mexico could be pulled into the eastern half of the circulation.
Tropical Storm Newton is forecast to intensify on Monday. The broad circulation could slow the rate of intensification until a distinct inner core forms. Once a core develops, then Tropical Storm Newton could intensify more quickly and a period of rapid intensification may be possible. Tropical Storm Newton could intensify into a hurricane before it reaches Baja California.
The ridge over Mexico is steering Newton toward the north-northwest and that motion is expected to continue for another day or so. An upper level trough approaching the west coast of North America is expected to turn Tropical Storm Newton more toward the north as it nears the southern tip of Baja California. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Newton could be very near the southern tip of Baja California in about 36 hours.