Tag Archives: SH08

Tropical Cyclone Fehi Develops Near New Caledonia

Tropical Cyclone Fehi developed over the Coral Sea near New Caledonia on Sunday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 162.2°E which put it about 360 miles (580 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  Fehi was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (90 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Fehi was not well organized for much of Sunday, but it exhibited signs of greater organization in recent hours.  An upper level low near eastern Australia was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing over the top of the circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear for much of Sunday, but the shear appeared to decrease on Sunday night.  A distinct low level center of circulation was exposed on recent visible satellite images.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands south of the center of circulation.  More bands of showers and low clouds seemed to be forming in the northern half of the circulation.  A rainband appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  There was some upper level divergence to the southeast of Tropical Cyclone Fehi.

Tropical Cyclone Fehi will be moving through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Fehi is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level low will continue to cause vertical wind shear, but the shear may be small enough to allow for intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could intensify during the next 24 hours.  When Fehi moves farther south, it will move over much cooler water and the tropical cyclone will start to weaken.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone in two or three days.

The upper low near eastern Australia is steering Tropical Cyclone Fehi toward the south-southeast.  A general motion toward the southeast is expected during the next two or three days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Fehi is forecast to pass west of New Caledonia.  Although the center is likely to pass to the west of New Caledonia, rainbands on the eastern side of Fehi could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain.  Heavy could cause flash floods.  Tropical Cyclone Fehi could approach New Zealand in about three days.  Fehi could be a strong extratropical cyclone at that time.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile Intensifies Rapidly Into Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified rapidly on Sunday from a tropical storm to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cebile was located at latitude 14.5°S and longitude 82.5°E which put it about 850 miles (1375 km) southeast of Diego Garcia.  Cebile was moving toward the southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile intensified very rapidly during the past 24 hours as it moved through a very favorable environment.  The maximum sustained wind speed increased from 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) to 130 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is very well organized.  There is a circular eye at the center of circulation.  The eye is surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds are occurring in the ring of storms.  Rainbands are revolving around the core of the circulation.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is generating strong upper level divergence which is pumping away mass and allowing the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Cebile is symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extend out about 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 150 miles (240 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Cebile is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.8.

Tropical Cyclone Cebile continues to move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Cebile is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level winds are weak and there is little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Cebile is likely to intensify further and it could become the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Cebile is moving near the western part of a subtropical ridge which is steering the tropical cyclone toward the southwest.  A general southwesterly motion is expected to continue for the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cebile will remain well south of Diego Garcia.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Tropical Cyclone 08S was moving near the northern end of New Caledonia.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 08S was located at latitude 18.8°S and longitude 162.1°E which put it about 370 miles (600 km) northwest of Noumea, New Caledonia.  It was moving toward the southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.