Tropical Storm Pabuk brought wind and rain to southern Thailand on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 8.7°N and longitude 98.5°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) northeast of Phuket, Thailand. Pabuk was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.
Tropical Storm Pabuk made landfall near Sichon in southern Thailand. Pabuk brought gusty winds to much of the Isthmus of Kra. It also dropped heavy rain over parts of southern Thailand. Tropical Storm Pabuk weakened when it crossed the Isthmus of Kra, but the core of the circulation appears to have remained intact. Pabuk is moving over the Andaman Sea and it still has a well defined low level center of circulation. Several bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of the tropical storm. Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are located in the northeastern part of the circulation which is over the Gulf of Thailand.
Tropical Storm Pabuk will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Pabuk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, which will inhibit intensification. However, the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent Tropical Storm Pabuk from strengthening.
Tropical Storm Pabuk will continue to move around the western end of the ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will steer Pabuk toward the west-northwest for another 24 to 36 hours. Pabuk will turn more toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pabuk will reach the Andaman Islands in about 36 hours.
Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 01W formed southeast of the Marshall Islands. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 4.9°N and longitude 174.0°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southeast of Majuro, Marshall Islands. It was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb. Tropical Depression 01W is forecast to move toward the west-northwest and strengthen. On its anticipated track it could move toward Majuro, Kwajalein, Ujelang, and the Marianas.
More thunderstorms developed on Saturday around the circulation previously designated Tropical Depression 01W earlier this week when it moved through the southern Philippines. At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The depression was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.
After persisting mainly as a low level circulation during the past few days as it moved westward across the South China Sea, more thunderstorms developed in the depression on Saturday. Most of the thunderstorms developed in bands north and west of the center of circulation. There were bands of low clouds and showers in the southeastern portion of the circulation. The depression has a well defined low level center of circulation. Thunderstorms were starting to generate some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the depression.
The depression will be moving through an environment that is marginal for intensification. It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C to 27°C. So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification. An upper level ridge to the east of the depression is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. If the shear does not increase, the depression could maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours.
A ridge north of the depression is steering it toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two. On its anticipated track the depression will move toward the southernmost part of Vietnam. The depression could bring locally heavy rain to southern Vietnam. The rain could be heavy enough to cause flooding in some areas.
A center of circulation formed within a cluster of thunderstorms east of Mindanao on Saturday and the system was designated Tropical Depression 01W. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 9.2°N and longitude 126.5°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) east-southeast of Cebu, Philippines. The depression was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.
Although there is a distinct center of circulation in Tropical Depression 01W, the distribution of thunderstorms is asymmetrical. Most of the stronger thunderstorms are forming in the northern half of the circulation and there are few thunderstorms in the southern half of the circulation. The thunderstorms in the northern half of the circulation are generating upper level divergence that is pumping out mass toward the northeast and northwest of the tropical depression.
Tropical Depression 01W will be moving through an oceanic and atmospheric environment that is somewhat favorable for intensification. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C. An upper level ridge is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the depression, but the vertical wind shear is not too strong. However, the center of Tropical Depression 01W will move over some of the islands of the southern Philippines. Increases friction and high topography will disrupt the circulation each time the center moves over land. The intermittent passages overland will cause weakening and the intensity of Tropical Depression 01W is likely to fluctuate during the next several days.
A subtropical ridge north of the depression is steering it toward the northwest. The ridge is forecast to strengthen and it is predicted to steer Tropical Depression 01W in a general westerly direction during the next several days. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression 01W will pass near northern Mindanao, Siargao Island, Dinogat Island, Leyte, Bohol Island, Cebu, Negros, and Panay Island.
Heavy rain associated will be the greatest threat with Tropical Depression 01W. The heaviest rain will fall north of where the center moves. The heavy rain could cause flooding and mudslides,