Tag Archives: Burma

Tropical Storm Pabuk Nears Southern Thailand

Tropical Storm Pabuk neared southern Thailand late on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Pabuk was located at latitude 8.0°N and longitude 101.0°E which put it about 110 miles (170 km) southeast of Sichon, Thailand.  Pabuk was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Pabuk exhibited more organization on Thursday.  A broken ring of showers and thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms were occurring in the western part of the ring, while weaker storms and showers comprised the rest of the ring.  Several bands of thunderstorms were on the western side of Tropical Storm Pabuk.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also on the eastern side of the circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next six to twelve hours.  Pabuk will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  It will move around the western end of a subtropical ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The ridge will produce southeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Pabuk could intensify during the short term.  It will reach the coast of southern Thailand in less than 12 hours.  Tropical Storm Pabuk will weaken when it moves across the Isthmus of Kra.  Pabuk could strengthen again when it moves over the Andaman Sea in a day or so.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will move around the western end of the subtropical ridge, which will steer the tropical storm in a northwesterly direction.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Pabuk will make landfall on the coast of southern Thailand near Sichon in a few hours.  Pabuk will move across the Isthmus of Kra and into the Andaman Sea in a day or so.  Tropical Storm Pabuk could reach the Andaman Islands within 60 hours.

Tropical Storm Pabuk will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to southern Thailand.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods, especially in areas of steeper terrain.

Tropical Cyclone 02B Forms Over the Bay of Bengal

A surface circulation formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday and the system was designated Tropical Cyclone 02B.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 88.9°E which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) south-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north-northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low level center of circulation consolidated over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms in the inner part of the circulation developed west of the center.  There were some thunderstorms in outer bands northeast of the center, but there were few thunderstorms closer to the core of the circulation in the eastern half of the tropical cyclone.  The thunderstorms west of the center were producing upper level divergence which was pumping away mass to the west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone 02B will be moving through an environment that will be favorable for intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of the tropical cyclone is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear and the shear may be the reason why the thunderstorms were developing west of the center.  The shear will be strong enough to slow intensification, but it will not prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone 02B will intensify during the next two days and it could become the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

A subtropical ridge located east of Tropical Cyclone 02B is steering it slowly toward the north-northeast.  A general north-northeasterly motion is expected to continue during the next several days.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone 02B could approach the coast of Bangladesh and northwestern Burma in about 48 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 02B could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by that time.  It could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain when it makes landfall.  Heavy rain could cause fresh water flooding of rivers.  In addition the winds on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone 02B will push water in the Bay of Bengal toward the coast.  A serious storm surge could occur along the coast east and near where the center makes landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha Strengthens Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha strengthened over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Maarutha was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 91.7°E which put it about 350 miles (565 km) southwest of Sandoway, Burma.  Maarutha was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A primary rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of circulation.  The band was broken on the eastern side of the center.  Additional bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the northern and eastern periphery of the circulation.  Thunderstorms in the primary rainband were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass out to the northeast of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will be moving through an environment that will be moderately favorable for intensification during the next 12-24 hours.  Maarutha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level ridge east of Maarutha is producing southwesterly winds which are blowing toward the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are causing moderate vertical wind shear which will inhibit intensification.  Despite the vertical wind shear Tropical Cyclone Maarutha could intensify further before it makes landfall in Burma in 18 to 24 hours.

A subtropical ridge east of Maarutha is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will make landfall in Burma between Sittwe and Bassein near Sandoway.

Tropical Cyclone Maarutha will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Burma when it makes landfall.  Some storm surge is likely south of where the center makes landfall and the wind blows the water toward the coast.

Tropical Depression 01W Redevelops East of Vietnam

More thunderstorms developed on Saturday around the circulation previously designated Tropical Depression 01W earlier this week when it moved through the southern Philippines.  At 10:00 p.m. EST the center of Tropical Depression 01W was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 220 miles (355 km) east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.  The depression was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

After persisting mainly as a low level circulation during the past few days as it moved westward across the South China Sea, more thunderstorms developed in the depression on Saturday.  Most of the thunderstorms developed in bands north and west of the center of circulation.  There were bands of low clouds and showers in the southeastern portion of the circulation. The depression has a well defined low level center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were starting to generate some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the northwest of the depression.

The depression will be moving through an environment that is marginal for intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26°C to 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level ridge to the east of the depression is generating southeasterly winds which are blowing across the top of the circulation.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  If the shear does not increase, the depression could maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during the next 24 hours.

A ridge north of the depression is steering it toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue for another day or two.  On its anticipated track the depression will move toward the southernmost part of Vietnam.  The depression could bring locally heavy rain to southern Vietnam.  The rain could be heavy enough to cause flooding in some areas.

Tropical Cyclone Forms Near Andaman Islands

A tropical cyclone formed near the Andaman Islands over the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 05B was located at latitude 11.6°N and longitude 92.1°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) southeast of Visakhapatnam, India.  The tropical cyclone was moving toward the north-northeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

An area of thunderstorms moved from the western Pacific Ocean into the southeastern Bay of Bengal.  The area of thunderstorms turned slowly northward near the Nicobar and Andaman Islands.  A distinct center of circulation began to organize inside the area of thunderstorms.  The Indian Meteorological Department classified the low pressure area as a depression and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center designated the system as Tropical Cyclone 05B.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone 05B is still organizing.  A primary band of thunderstorms wraps around the northern and western side of the center of circulation.  Additional bands of thunderstorms are forming in the eastern half of the circulation.  Microwave satellite imagery suggests that an eye could be developing in the middle levels of the circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence that is pumping out mass toward the northeast of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone will be moving through an environment that is favorable for intensification.  It will be moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level ridge to the west of the cyclone is producing northerly winds which are blowing across the top it.  However, the vertical wind shear is not significantly inhibiting the organization of the tropical cyclone.  Tropical Cyclone 05B could reach hurricane intensity in a couple of days.

A subtropical ridge is currently steering Tropical Cyclone 05B toward the north.  The center is moving just to the west of the Andaman Islands.  The subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen and build toward the west.  As the ridge strengthens and extends farther west, it will start to steer the tropical cyclone toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 05B could approach the east coast of India in three or four days.

Tropical Cyclone 05B will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Andaman Islands on Thursday.  The tropical cyclone could bring strong winds, locally heavy rain, a storm surge and mudslides to southern India in a few days.

Tropical Cyclone Kyant Forms Over Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Kyant formed over the Bay of Bengal on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Kyant was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 90.4°E which put it about 480 miles (770 km) east of Vishakhapatnam, India.  Kyant was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms persisted over the eastern Bay of Bengal during the past few days, but strong upper level easterly winds prevented the development of the system.  The upper level winds began to diminish on Monday and a low level circulation center began to develop on the eastern edge of the area of thunderstorms.  When the upper level winds became weaker, then thunderstorms were able to develop closer to the center of circulation.  The system acquired the structural characteristics associated with a tropical cyclone and the India Meteorological Department named it Kyant.

The circulation of Tropical Cyclone Kyant is still organizing.  Some vertical wind shear continues because of easterly upper level winds being generated by a ridge northeast of the tropical cyclone.  The shear is causing more of the thunderstorms to form in the western half of the circulation.  However, additional thunderstorms have developed closer to the center in recent hours and some spiral rainbands have formed.  The thunderstorms near the center are generating upper level divergence which is starting to pump out mass in all directions.

Tropical Cyclone Kyant will be moving through a favorable environment during the next several days.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level winds should remain weaker, and the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Cyclone Kyant is likely to intensify and it could undergo a period of rapid intensification.

The upper level ridge is steering Tropical Cyclone Kyant toward the west and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Kyant could approach the east coast of India in about 48 hours.  It could bring strong winds and very heavy rain to portions of eastern India later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu Nearing Bangladesh

Tropical Cyclone Roanu moved closer to the northern coast of the Bay of Bengal on Friday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Roanu was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 87.8°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) south of Kolkata, India and about 355 miles (575 km) west-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Roanu was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (18 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

On Friday Tropical Cyclone Roanu went through another cycle in which most of the thunderstorms dissipated near the center of circulation and then convection redeveloped rapidly.  Thunderstorm activity is increasing at the core of the circulation and those storms are driving well developed upper level outflow.  Several well formed bands of thunderstorms are rotating around the center of circulation.  Roanu is more organized and it is a little more intense than it was 24 hours ago.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu is in an environment that could support a little more intensification before it makes landfall on the north coast of the Bay of Bengal.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  Roanu is under an upper level ridge which means the upper level winds are light and there is not much vertical winds shear.  However, Roanu is getting closer to the north coast of the Bay of Bengal and it only has another 12 hours or so to intensify.

A ridge east of Roanu is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be near the coast of Bangladesh in about 12 hours.  Roanu is expected to continue moving toward the northeast after it makes landfall.

Although Tropical Cyclone Roanu could cause some minor wind damage, its main threats will be locally heavy rain and a moderate storm surge.  Tropical Cyclone Roanu could produce locally heavy rainfall, especially if the thunderstorm activity continues to pulse diurnally.  The heavy rain could produce significant fresh water flooding over parts of northeastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma).  In addition, the winds on the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be blowing toward the coast of Bangladesh and those winds will push water toward the coast.  The north coast of the Bay of Bengal is particularly susceptible to storms surges and Roanu could bring a moderate storm surge to the coast of Bangladesh.  The surge will be higher in the mouths of rivers and other locations where the shape of the coast funnels the water into specific locations.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu Threatens Northern Bay of Bengal

Tropical Cyclone Roanu intensified on Thursday and it poses an increasing threat to the northern Bay of Bengal.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Roanu was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 84.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) east of Visakhapatman, India and about 580 miles (935 km) west-southwest of Chittagong, Bangladesh.  Roanu was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (23 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 70 m.p.h. (115 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Roanu weakened earlier today and at times it did not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery.  However, a burst of thunderstorm activity near the center of Roanu has occurred in recent hours and an eyelike feature has appeared on conventional satellite imagery.  The structure of the circulation improved as a result of the new burst of thunderstorms.  The primary rainband now coils more tightly about three quarters of the way around the apparent center of circulation.  The thunderstorms near the center of circulation are generating upper level divergence which is pumping out mass in all directions.  Several additional bands of thunderstorms have developed over the eastern half of the circulation and Tropical Cyclone Roanu is stronger than it was 24 hours ago.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu is in an environment favorable for intensification.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  Roanu has moved closer to the center of an upper level ridge and the upper levels are not as strong as they were yesterday.  As a result the vertical wind shear is much less and the upper level ridge is actually helping to pump mass away from the center of Roanu.  The center of the tropical cyclone is near the east coast of India, but the core is expected to remain over water on Friday.  Roanu is likely to strengthen further and it could reach hurricane/typhoon intensity.

A ridge east of Roanu is steering the tropical cyclone toward the northeast and that general motion is expected to continue.  On its anticipated track Roanu could be south of Kolkata, India in about 18 hours.  Tropical Cyclone Roanu could be approaching Chittagong, Bangladesh in 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Roanu poses a significant threat to the northern Bay of Bengal.  That area is vulnerable to storm surges.  Since Roanu will approach from the southwest, the winds in its counterclockwise circulation will push water toward the north coast of the Bay of Bengal.  In addition, a strengthening Tropical Cyclone Roanu will be capable of producing locally heavy rain which could cause inland flooding.

Tropical Cyclone 01B Forms Over Bay of Bengal

The structure of a low pressure system north of Sri Lanka changed on Wednesday and it was classified as Tropical Cyclone 01B (TC01B).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01B was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 82.3°E which put it about 155 miles (250 km) south-southwest Visakhapatnam, India.  TC01B was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A low pressure system developed near Sri Lanka several days ago.  The low moved over the east coast of Sri Lanka, which slowed the organization of the circulation.  A more well defined center of circulation began to organize after the low moved north of Sri Lanka.  A primary rainband started to wrap around the western side of the low and several broken spiral bands formed on the eastern side.  The circulation exhibited enough characteristics associated with tropical cyclones to be classified as Tropical Cyclone 01B.

The circulation of TC01B is still not particularly well organized.  A primary rainband curls around the northern and western sides of the circulation.  However, there are not many thunderstorms in the other parts of the tropical cyclone.  An upper level ridge over the northern Bay of Bengal is generating easterly winds over the top of the tropical cyclone.  Those winds are producing moderate vertical wind shear and are contributing to the fact that most thunderstorms are west of the center of circulation.  The fact that the center of circulation is near the coast of India also means a  portion of circulation is over land, where there is more friction and less moisture.

Tropical Cyclone 01B is expected to move into a more favorable environment during the next two days.  It is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 31°C.  TC01B is expected to move closer to the center of the upper level ridge where the winds are not as strong.  That would reduce the vertical wind shear, which would also be favorable for intensification.  However, the proximity of the center to the east coast of India means that a portion of the circulation will remain over land, which will slow the rate of future intensification.

A ridge is east of TC01B is expected to steer the tropical cyclone toward the northeast during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track, TC01B could be approaching the coast of Bangladesh in 48 to 72 hours.  TC01B caused heavy rain in parts of Sri Lanka and southeast India.  It could produce more heavy rain in parts of northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar (Burma).  TC01B could also generate a significant storm surge along the north coast of the Bay of Bengal as it nears the coast.