Tag Archives: Invest 95W

Tropical Depression Forms East of Philippines

A tropical depression formed east of the Philippines on Monday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the tropical depression was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 129.0°E which put it about 165 miles (270 km) east of Mindanao.  It was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system east of the Philippines exhibited greater organization on Monday and the Japan Meteorological Agency classified the system as a tropical depression.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the depression.  The strongest thunderstorms were east of the center of circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were occurring in the eastern and southern parts of the circulation.  Bands in the northern and western sides of the depression consisted mostly of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

The tropical depression will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move under a small upper level ridge that is between an upper trough west of the Philippines and another upper trough northeast of the Philippines.  The upper level winds are weaker in the small ridge and there will be less vertical wind shear.  The tropical depression is likely to intensify into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen into a typhoon later this week.

The tropical depression will move around the western end of a high pressure system centered south of Japan.  The high will steer the depression slowly toward the northwest during the next few days.  On its anticipated track the depression could approach the northern Philippines later this week.  It could be a typhoon by the time it approaches the northern Philippines.

Possible Tropical Development East of Philippines

A tropical cyclone could develop east of the Philippines during the next day or two.  A low pressure system east of Mindanao is currently designated as Invest 95W.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 95W was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 131.5°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Mindanao.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The area of low pressure currently designated at Invest 95W exhibited great organization on Saturday night.  Microwave satellite imagery revealed a distinct low level circulation.  Many thunderstorms were developing in a band on the southern and eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Invest 95W will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move in a region south of an upper level trough northeast of the Philippines, and west of an upper level ridge centered south of Guam.  The trough and ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will probably not be strong enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Invest 95W could develop into a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.

Invest 95W will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Invest 95W will move slowly toward the northern Philippines.