A tropical cyclone could develop east of the Philippines during the next day or two.  A low pressure system east of Mindanao is currently designated as Invest 95W.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Invest 95W was located at latitude 7.2°N and longitude 131.5°E which put it about 335 miles (540 km) east of Mindanao.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

The area of low pressure currently designated at Invest 95W exhibited great organization on Saturday night.  Microwave satellite imagery revealed a distinct low level circulation.  Many thunderstorms were developing in a band on the southern and eastern side of the circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  More thunderstorms began to form near the center of circulation on Saturday night.

Invest 95W will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next several days.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move in a region south of an upper level trough northeast of the Philippines, and west of an upper level ridge centered south of Guam.  The trough and ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will probably not be strong enough to prevent the formation of a tropical cyclone.  Invest 95W could develop into a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.

Invest 95W will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track Invest 95W will move slowly toward the northern Philippines.