Hurricane Carlos has a very small circulation and the tropical storm force winds extend out less than 50 miles (80 km) from the center.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico and about 140 miles (225 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo.  Carlos was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.  A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Punta San Telmo.

The small circulation of Hurricane Carlos continues to move over the Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  It is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is about 29°C.  An upper level ridge north of the hurricane is generating northeasterly winds that are impinging on the northern side of Carlos.  Those winds are inhibiting upper level divergence from the northern side of Carlos.  The small circulation means than any thunderstorms form near the center and the strongest storms are south of the center.  The small circulation also means that wind shear can have a very big effect on Carlos.  Even moderate winds in the upper levels would be strong enough to disrupt the vertical coherence of the hurricane and blow away the upper part of Carlos.  The vertical wind shear is expected to be modest in the short term, and Carlos is forecast to maintain its intensity for a day or two.  However, it would not take much increase in the wind shear to blow the top off Carlos.

The upper level ridge is expected to continue to steer Carlos toward the west-northwest for 24 to 36 hours.  After that time two scenarios are possible.  In one scenario the upper level ridge weakens and Carlos turns northward and moves very close the coast of Mexico near Cabo Corientes.  In an alternative scenario the ridge maintains its intensity and it steers Carlos toward the west-northwest for the next few days.  A third scenario, which could occur at any time, would happen if wind shear blows the top off of Carlos.  In that case the surface circulation would be steered westward by the lower level flow until it dissipated.  These three possible scenarios make the future track of Carlos very uncertain.