A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the South Indian Ocean and to hit northern Madagascar during the weekend. The system is currently a low pressure system designated as Invest 93S. At 7:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Invest 93S was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 59.0°E which put it about 435 miles (700 km) north-northeast of Mauritius. It was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (60 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 93S, over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius is forecast to move west toward northern Madagascar and to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 72 hours. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low pressure system is currently asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the western side of the low pressure system. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consist primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms in the western half of the system generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the low pressure system.

Invest 93S will move through an environment favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northwestern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of the circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear is currently contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. However, the vertical wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent Invest 93S from developing into a tropical cyclone.

Invest 93S will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the west-southwest during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Invest 93S could reach the coast of northeastern Madagascar within 72 hours. Invest 93S is forecast to be a tropical cyclone when it reaches northern Madagascar. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar during the weekend. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.