Tropical Cyclone 11P formed near Vanuatu on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 168.9°E which put it about 235 miles (380 km) northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia. Tropical Cyclone 11P was moving toward the south-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system near the island of Tanna strengthened to a tropical cyclone on Tuesday night. More thunderstorms developed in bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone 11P. Bands in the eastern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds. Storms near the center of circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone 11P will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge centered east of New Caledonia. The ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of the tropical cyclone. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone 11P is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 11P will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone 11P will move slowly away from Vanuatu. The tropical cyclone will be near the Loyalty Islands in 24 hours. The center could pass near Mare. Tropical Cyclone 11P will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Ouvea, Lifou and Mare. The center of Tropical Cyclone could reach southern New Caledonia within 36 hours.