Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved southwest of Madagascar on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai was located at latitude 24.9°S and longitude 41.7°E which put it about 160 miles (260 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Batsirai was moving toward the south at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai moved southwest of Madagascar on Monday morning after crossing central and southwestern Madagascar during the weekend. There were reports of widespread damage and some deaths from Madagascar. Heavy rain was still falling over parts of southwestern Madagascar. Mountains on Madagascar disrupted the inner core of Batsirai’s circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands is the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai. Bands in the western half of Batsirai’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Batsirai.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Batsirai toward the south during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move farther away from Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Batsirai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Batsirai’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit intensification. Moderate vertical wind shear and cooler Sea Surface Temperatures will cause Tropical Cyclone Batsirai to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next few days.