Tropical Cyclone Asani Nears East Coast of India

Tropical Cyclone Asani neared the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 82.1°E which put it 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Machilipatnam, India and about about 210 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam. Asani was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Asani maintained its intensity as it moved closer to the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force were occurring in an area 30 miles (50 km) north of the center of Asani’s circulation. Even though the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Asani was steady, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Asani’s circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Asani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southwest of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed Tropical Cyclone Asani to maintain its intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Asani.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over South Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Asani’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air that is sinking over India. The moderate vertical wind shear and the sinking drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Asani to start to weaken as it approaches the east coast of India during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will reach the east coast of India near Machilipatnam within 18 hours. Asani will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Andhra Pradesh during the next 36 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.