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Tropical Cyclone Arnab Develops over Bay of Bengal

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Tropical Cyclone Arnab developed rapidly over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 87.8°E which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) east-southeast of Machilipatnam, India.  Arnab was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Sunday night after it developed over the Bay of Bengal.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Arnab’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.  Storms near the center of Arnab generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Arnab was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Arnab’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Arnab.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Arnab will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arnab’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Arnab could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Southeast Asia and the Bay of Bengal.  The high pressure system will steer Arnab toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Arnab will move toward southeastern India.

Tropical Cyclone Arnab could approach the coast of Andhra Pradesh in 36 hours.  Arnab is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it approaches the coast.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Andhra Pradesh.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Arnab could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Andhra Pradesh.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Intensifies Southeast of Nellore, India

Tropical Cyclone Michaung intensified over the Bay of Bengal southeast of Nellore, India on Monday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 80.7°E which put it about 60 miles (95 km) southeast of Nellore, India. Michaung was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung intensified to the threshold of a hurricane/typhoon over the Bay of Bengal southeast of Nellore, India on Monday morning. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Michaung’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Michaung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Michaung’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. The western part of Tropical Cyclone Michaung’s circulation will be over southeastern India. Even though almost half of Michaung will be over land, the center of circulation will still be over the Bay of Bengal. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move toward the coast of southeast India. The center of Michaung will approach the coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam in 18 hours. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Warnings for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Tropical Cyclone Michaung will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeast India. Bands in the western side of Michaung’s circulation were already dropping rain over northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. There were reports of flooding in Chennai. Heavy rain could cause additional floods in other locations. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung Strengthens East of Chennai, India

Tropical Cyclone Michaung strengthened over the Bay of Bengal east of Chennai, India on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 81.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) east of Chennai, India. Michaung was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung strengthened gradually on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Michaung’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Michaung.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Michaung will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over the Bay of Bengal. The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Michaung’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Michaung system will intensify during the next 24 hours. Michaung could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over East Asia. The high pressure system will steer Michaung toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Michaung will move toward the coast of southeast India. The center of Michaung will approach the coast between Nellore and Machilipatnam in 36 hours. The India Meteorological Department issued Cyclone Alerts for the coasts of Andhra Pradesh, North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Tropical Cyclone Michaung will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southeast India. Bands in the western side of Michaung’s circulation were already dropping rain over northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Michaung could cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Asani Nears East Coast of India

Tropical Cyclone Asani neared the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Asani was located at latitude 15.1°N and longitude 82.1°E which put it 90 miles (145 km) southeast of Machilipatnam, India and about about 210 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Visakhapatnam. Asani was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Asani maintained its intensity as it moved closer to the east coast of India on Tuesday morning. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force were occurring in an area 30 miles (50 km) north of the center of Asani’s circulation. Even though the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Asani was steady, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Asani’s circulation. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Asani consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms southwest of the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass allowed Tropical Cyclone Asani to maintain its intensity. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 155 miles (250 km) from the center of Asani.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Asani will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over South Asia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Asani’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Asani will move toward a mass of drier air that is sinking over India. The moderate vertical wind shear and the sinking drier air are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Asani to start to weaken as it approaches the east coast of India during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Asani will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Southeast Asia. The high pressure system will steer Asani toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Asani will reach the east coast of India near Machilipatnam within 18 hours. Asani will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Andhra Pradesh during the next 36 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.