Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy maintained its track to the north over the Arabian Sea on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 19.6°N and longitude 67.6°E which put it about 375 miles (605 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

The intensity of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be cycling up and down every 24 hours. In addition, there was a big difference in the appearance of Biparjoy between conventional infrared and microwave satellite images. A recent microwave image showed a small elliptical eye at the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. An eye was not present on a conventional infrared satellite image. The difference in appearance was making it challenging to estimate the intensity of Biparjoy based on data remotely sensed by satellites.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was still well organized. A thin ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye on the microwave satellite image. Bands of strong thunderstorms persisted in the southern half of Biparjoy’s circulation. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparyjoy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Biparjoy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 31˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, more drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. In addition, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy has been moving slowly and the wind could mix cooler water to the surface of the Arabian Sea. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will weaken during the next 24 hours if the drier air in the northern part of the circulation and the mixing of cooler water to the surface inhibit the formation of thunderstorms near the core of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the western side of a high pressure system over India during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in three days.