Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to churn toward the Indus River Delta on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 67.1°E which put it about 285 miles (455 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy appeared to be in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Monday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a small circular eye at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern half of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy became more symmetrical on Monday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in all directions from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Arabian Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could remain in equilibrium with its environment during the next 24 hours if the effects of warm Sea Surface Temperatures and little vertical wind shear balance the effect of the drier air in the northern part of the circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy could approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 48 hours.