Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy continued to move slowly toward the Indus River Valley on Tuesday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 66.3°E which put it about 225 miles (365 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan. Biparjoy was moving toward the north at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy remained in equilibrium with the surrounding environment on Tuesday and the intensity did not change much. A microwave satellite image showed a circular eye with a diameter of 40 miles (65 km) at the center of Biparjoy’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. Bands in the northern and eastern parts of Biparjoy consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Biparjoy’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy increased on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Biparjoy. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.0. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Biparjoy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea. The upper level ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will start to blow toward the top of Biparjoy’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear will increase. In addition, more drier air will be pulled from South Asia into the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy. The drier air will continue to inhibit formation of thunderstorms in the that part of Biparjoy. More drier air and more vertical wind shear are likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system over the Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Biparjoy slowly toward the north during the next 12 hours. The upper level ridge over the northern Arabian Sea will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy toward the northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will approach the coast near the border between India and Pakistan in 36 hours. Biparjoy is likely to be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it reaches the Indus River Delta. The India Meteorological Department issued a Cyclone Warning for the Saurashtra and Kutch Coasts. Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Pakistan and western India. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Biparjoy could also cause a storm surge of up to 8 feet (2.4 meters along the coast).