A small area of low pressure that was classified as Tropical Depression Nine when it was over the Bay of Campeche crossed the Yucatan peninsula and it is now over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the low was centered at latitude 19.0°N and longitude 87.0°W which put it about 150 miles south of Cancun, Mexico and about 550 miles south-southwest of Key West, Florida.  The low was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Scattered thunderstorms are forming in the vicinity of the low, but the circulation does not appear to be as well organized as it was 24 hours ago.  However, the low is now over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exceed 29°C Celsius and it appears to be in an area where the winds is diverging in upper levels.  At the same time, there are stronger upper level winds north of the low and drier air from higher latitudes is north and west of the low.  So, some factors in the environment (warm SSTs and upper level divergence) would support intensification, while other factors (nearby wind shear and drier air) would inhibit intensification.  At the  moment most guidance suggest that there is only about a 15% probability that the low will intensify into a tropical cyclone.

However, some guidance from numerical models also suggests that the low could move slowly eastward during the next 24-48 hours as it is affected by an upper level trough passing to its north.  The guidance then suggests that the low could start to move slowly back to the west as an upper level ridge passes north of it.  If the low spends a few days over the warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, then it has the potential to intensify into a tropical cyclone.