A banded structure developed within an area of thunderstorms over the Arabian Sea and it has been classified as a tropical cyclone.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone 04A was located at latitude 14.1°N and longitude 63.0°E which put it about 515 miles south-southeast of Masirah Island.  Tropical Cyclone 04A was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. and there were gusts to 50 m.p.h.

The tropical cyclone had been moving toward the northeast, but it appears to be turning more to northwest in response to a strengthening ridge of high pressure.  It is expected to move toward the northwest during the next 36-48 hours.  As the tropical cyclone approaches Oman, an upper level trough is expected to turn it toward the northeast.  There is some spread in the model guidance about when and where the turn toward the northeast will occur.  Therefore there is greater than normal uncertainty about the track forecast at longer time periods.

Upper level divergence is pumping out mass toward the northeast and southwest of the circulation.  As a result the surface pressure should fall and the tropical cyclone is expected to intensify during the next 48-72 hours.  Winds could reach hurricane force as the tropical moves in the general direction of Oman.