Tropical Cyclone Nilofar (Tropical Cyclone 04A) intensified on Sunday and it is now the equivalent of a hurricane.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Nilofar was located at latitude 14.8°N and longitude 62.8°E, which put it about 470 miles southeast of Masirah Island, about 750 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan and about 720 miles west-southwest of Mumbai, India.  Nilofar was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h.

Well developed upper level outflow was pumping out mass and Nilofar intensified steadily on Sunday.  The upper level outflow remains well developed and there appear to be outflow channels to the southwest and northeast.  So, further intensification is possible in the shorter term.  Nilofar is expected to move northward and eventually stronger westerly winds will increase the wind shear and start to weaken the tropical cyclone.

Nilofar has been moving slowly toward the northwest.  It is likely to continue moving northward during the next 24-48 hours.  When Nilofar gets farther north, southwesterly winds on the east side of an upper level trough will turn it more toward the northeast.  Nilofar could eventually make a landfall in Pakistan or India, but the stronger upper level winds will weaken the circulation before it reaches the coast.