The center of Tropical Depression Nine (TD9) moved inland last night near Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico and TD9 is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of TD9 was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 190 miles west-northwest of Belize City, Belize and about 750 miles southwest of Key West, Florida.  TD9 was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.  TD9 is about midway between the Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern Caribbean Sea and it is possible that the center of TD9 could move over the water on Friday.

The low level circulation around TD9 is still well organized and it is possible to see spiral bands rotating counterclockwise around the center on visible satellite imagery.  Some thunderstorms have developed near the center of circulation this afternoon.  Drier air is flowing southward over the Gulf of Mexico and some of that dry air has reached the northern part of the Yucatan peninsula where it is inhibiting the formation of deep convection.  In addition westerly winds in the upper levels are still creating wind shear over the top of TD9.

The higher probability is that the effects of being over land, drier air and wind shear will cause the lower level circulation of TD9 to spin down and dissipate.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this result a probability of 90%.  However, there is a 10% probability that the center of TD9 moves out over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and begins to intensify.  The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the northwestern Caribbean Sea are warmer than 29°C and the warm water is fairly deep.  So, there is plenty of energy to support the intensification of a tropical cyclone if TD9 reaches that area.  In addition, as TD9 moves farther south, it will be getting away from the strongest of the upper level winds and the wind shear will start to decrease.  Water vapor will evaporate into the drier air and so it will gradually get moister and have less of an effect on TD9.

If TD9 makes it to the northwestern Caribbean Sea, it could become stationary for several days.  If that happens, then some intensification will be possible.  Of course, before any intensification can occur, it will require that the center of circulation move back over water.  So, the movement of TD9 during the next 24 hours will determine if it dissipates or has a chance to intensify.