Hurricane Ernesto intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located at latitude 27.1°N and longitude 68.1°W which put the center about 410 miles (660 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Ernesto was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Ernesto has strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was present at the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ernesto increased on Thursday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ernesto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 260 miles (420 km) from the center of Hurricane Ernesto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 33.2.  Hurricane Ernesto was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Ernesto is larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Ernesto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ernesto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Ernesto is likely to continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Ernesto will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ernesto toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Ernesto will approach Bermuda on Friday night.  The center of Ernesto will be near Bermuda on Saturday morning.

Hurricane Ernesto will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.