Tropical Storm Odile formed west of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Odile was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 103.5°W which put it about 195 miles south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas and about 245 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Odile was moving toward the northwest at 3 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. and the minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

An upper level high pressure system over northern Mexico is generating northeasterly winds over Odile, which is creating moderate wind shear over the storm.  The shear is likely to continue in the short-term and then it will lessen.  Shear will likely limit the rate at which Odile intensifies during the next 12-24 hours.  However, if the shear lessens in a day or so, then Odile will be in an environment favorable for intensification with warm Sea Surface Temperatures and a period or more rapid intensification is possible.  Odile has a good chance of becoming a hurricane and there is a possibility that it could reach Major Hurricane intensity.

The mid level winds that would steer Odile are relatively light and so it is likely to move slowly in a general northwest or west-northwest direction.  With weak steering flow erratic motion may occur and the center could even be quasi-stationary at times.  An east-west mid-level ridge of high pressure over the Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will shift westward and eventually provide a stronger west-northwest or northwest steering flow for Odile.  As a result Odile will likely move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico toward the southern tip of Baja California.  Recent indications suggest that the center will move west of Baja California like Hurricane Norbert did.

Although it looks less likely that the center of Odile will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico, uncertainty exists about the ultimate size of the wind field when Odile intensifies.  The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Lazaro Cardenas northward to Manzanillo as a precaution in case the wind field expands to the point where tropical storm force winds reach the coast.