Thunderstorms developed near a low level circulation on Sunday evening and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Depression Two-E (TD2E).  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of TD2E was located at latitude 12.7°N and longitude 103.3°W which put it about 365 miles south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  TD2E was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

The intensity forecast for TD2E is quite challenging.  Upper level outflow from Hurricane Andres, which is about 1000 miles west of TD2E, is creating strong vertical wind shear over the top of the depression.  The low level circulation of TD2E was completely exposed at times on Sunday afternoon as the higher level clouds were blown away from it.  At other times thunderstorms developed quickly near the center of circulation.  As long the outflow from Andres blows over the top of TD2E, it will inhibit intensification.  On the other hand, the depression is over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is near 30°C and there is a lot of energy in the upper layer of the ocean.  Hurricane Andres is likely to weaken and move farther away from TD2E during the next few days.  If that happens, then the vertical wind shear over TD2E will decreases.  If the lower level structure of the depression is still intact at that time, then it will be able to extract energy from the ocean and intensify.  Guidance from numerical models predicts TD2E will survive and intensify later this week.

The track forecast is also challenging because it is partly dependent on the vertical height of the structure of the depression.  If the depression is weak and shallow, it will be steered more by winds in the lower levels.  Those winds would tend to steer it toward the west-northwest.  If the depression intensifies and grows taller, it will be steered by winds higher in the atmosphere.  Fluctuations in the amount of vertical wind shear and its subsequent effects on the intensity of TD2E could result in erratic motion for several days.