Andres Strengthens Into a Category 4 Hurricane

Hurricane Andres turned westward and strengthened rapidly into a Major Hurricane on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Andres was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 119.2°W which put it about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Andres was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h) which made Andres a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  There were gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.   Andres became only the fifth Major Hurricane to form over the Eastern North Pacific during the month of May.

By turning toward the west Hurricane Andres remained over water where the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) was 27°C.  The westward movement also minimized the vertical wind shear.  The combination of warm SST and little vertical wind shear produced rapid intensification.  Andres could remain over warm SSTs for another day or so.  Eventually it will encounter cooler water, which will be unable to supply enough energy to maintain its current intensity.  There are stronger upper level winds west of Andres and those will increase the vertical wind shear over the hurricane.  Cooler SSTs and more shear will weaken Andres during the coming week.

A strengthening ridge steered Andres toward the west on Sunday.  Another upper level trough will approach the ridge during the next few days.  The trough is likely to weaken the ridge and cause Andres to turn more northward again.  Track guidance from the numerical models diverges later in the week and the uncertainty increases at longer time periods.