A low level circulation formed within a larger area of thunderstorms over the Arabian Sea and the system was classified as Tropical Cyclone 01A.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone 01A was located at latitude 18.0°N and longitude 67.5°E which put it about 490 miles (790 km) south of Karachi, Pakistan.  It was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h) and there were gusts to 60 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone 01A is over warm Sea Surface Temperatures and there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support further intensification.  An upper level ridge over India is creating some easterly wind over the cyclone.  The strongest thunderstorms are occurring in the western half of the core of the cyclone.  The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone 01A is likely to intensify during the next day or two.  Uncertainty about the future track of the cyclone also creates uncertainty about the longer term intensity forecast.

Tropical Cyclone 01A is moving northward around the western end of the ridge over India.  A trough farther to the north over Asia is expected to weaken the ridge and at that point the steering pattern will weaken.  Model guidance is inconsistent about the future track of the cyclone.  Some models forecast that Tropical Cyclone 01A will continue to move northward into Pakistan.  Other models predict that the cyclone could curve westward before it reaches Pakistan.  Thus, there is a high degree of uncertainty about the future track of Tropical Cyclone 01A.