A low level circulation in a large area of thunderstorms south of Mexico showed evidence of more organization and the National Hurricane Center classified it as Tropical Depression Three-E on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Three-E (TD3E) was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 99.7°W which put it about 275 miles (445 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  TD3E was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (70 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

The circulation of TD3E is still organizing and there could be multiple smaller centers of circulation rotating around inside a larger, broader center of low pressure.  The tropical depression is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, which means there is plenty of energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  An upper level high ridge over Mexico is generating modest amounts of vertical wind shear over TD3E.  The wind shear could slow the organization and intensification of the depression, but it should not prevent it.  The rate of intensification could quicken after the circulation becomes more well organized.

The ridge over Mexico is currently steering TD3E toward the northwest.  Guidance from numerical models is inconsistent about the future track of the depression.  Some models predict the ridge over Mexico will weaken and that TD3E will move northward toward the coast.  Other models maintain the ridge and forecast the depression will move northwest and stay west of the coast of Mexico.  The current motion of TD3E may suggest that the latter scenario has a higher probability of being correct, but there is still significant uncertainty about its future track.